Wednesday, September 2, 2015
The Beeze's College Football Pick'em (week 1)
Good looking form there...
And hopefully this weekly post will help you give it to some one...Like your bookie...Screw on-line gambling...I'm old school...I learned the gambling business when I was a little kid...My dad did some collections for extra money when we were young, and I would go with him to pick up "football tickets" and drop them off on Fridays...He did some gambling himself...and taught me his simple rules...
1. Don't bet the mortgage/rent.
2. Don't bet the grocery money.
3. Don't bet the kids tuition.
4. Don't bet with your heart. (took me a bit to get that)
5. Don't try to recover your loses with one big bet you can't cover/afford.
6. Don't bet on Monday Night Football...It was created for the Bookies.
Now that we have those tips out of the way...Let's get to the games I've picked for this week...(and no I won't be picking any of those cream-puff games...just real games that should be at least slightly competitive.) The lines I'm using are are as of right now.
- TCU at Minnesota (Thursday)
TCU is 7-3 in road openers and average a 19 point margin of victory...Last year against Minnesota they forced 5 turnovers.
Minnesota is 17-3 in home openers...They are 12-6 when hosting a non-conference opponent...Over the last three years, they are on a 9-0 run hosting non-conference opponents...That run comes to an end this week...Take TCU minus the points. (17)
-Michigan at Utah (Thursday)
Utah is 20-4 in home openers...Michigan hasn't started the season with a road victory since 1995...In the last 15 years Michigan is 3-8 in regular season, non-conference away games...I don't care what big mouth Jim Harbaugh says, the Michigan turnaround won't start this week...Take Utah, minus the points... (4.5)
-Washington at Boise State (Friday)
This will be Washington's first time on the Blue Turf...The Huskies are 2-11 in road openers...This is also Head Coach Chris Peterson's first time back to Boise State where he had a 48-2 record on the blue turf...Washington is going to lose, but take them plus the points...(12)...Peterson and his team will hang in there...
-Auburn vs. Louisville (Atlanta)
Louisville is 17-33-1 versus the SEC...This is their first opener not at home since 2005...Auburn has played in Atlanta 4 times since 2010 and have a 3-1 record...Auburn will make that 4-1 as they have too much firepower for the trendy Louisville pick...Take the Tigers minus the points...(10.5)
-Arizona State at Texas A&M (Houston)
ASU is 1-6 in road openers...They are 3-9 versus SEC teams...(not that I fully count A&M as a SEC team yet...It's a mental thing)....The Aggies are 5-7 in road/neutral site openers, but they have won 3 straight...This is one of those games I look at and say, 'leave it alone!' Yeah, I wouldn't touch this game, but screw it...It's called gambling for a reason....Take the Sun Devils plus the points! (3.5)
-Wisconsin vs. Alabama (Arlington)
Wisconsin had a streak of 16 straight season opening wins until last year...Alabama has won 13 straight season openers...This is their 4th neutral site opener (3-0)...I think Alabama is over-hyped this year...They'll probably win this one, but take the Badgers with the points...(10.5)
-Texas at Notre Dame
The Irish are 8-2 vs. Texas, winning the last 4 meetings...They are 15-4 in home/season openers since 1995...Texas is 1-2 in South Bend, Indiana...That win was in 1934...The Longhorns are 12-2 in road openers, losing the last 2...
This is that point when I have to listen to that don't bet with your heart rule...Texas is getting better, they're on their way back...But Notre Dame wins this game...
...That said, take Texas with the points...(10)
-Ohio State at Virginia Tech (Monday)
Virginia Tech is 18-1 in home openers...Ohio State is 7-2 since 2006 in road openers...When seeking revenge from a previous season's loss, the Buckeyes are 8-0 since 2010...The average margin of victory in those games is 14 points...The Hokies will hang in there with the home field advantage for the first half, maybe...But it won't last...Take Ohio State minus the points...(11)
Good luck, and enjoy the football...
disclaimer: I and this website are not responsible for any losses you take because you may be a degenerate gambler, an idiot, or may be dealing in illegal activities...These are just merely my thoughts on how I would bet, if I did that type of thing.